Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Luck does not exist.

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Luck does not exist.

When someone wins the lottery, it is probability. When you roll the dice, it is probability. When you get struck by lightning or not struck by lightning, it is all just probability. Some might say that luck exist and that luck is just anouther word for probability. I have a problem with this though. The word luck implies that there is not randomess to it, it implies that a person can possess randomness or probability. A person cannot have luck. This is not possible. They can only be the recipients of favorable probability.

And for those that you think are lucky, People can exist outside of the bell curve of probability, but not forever.

Not everything however is probability. Getting in a car accident or not getting in an accident, part probability, part driving skill. Winning a game of Euker (a card game) , is part probability and part skill. The sooner people figure this out the better their world will be.
That is because probability can be calculated and luck cannot.

A case in point. If one thinks they need luck to win the lottery, they might buy a ticket, but if that person just looks at the probability of winning the lottery, they will save themselves some money.
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12 Comments:

Anonymous Bob said...

Finally someone who agrees with me!!! I have been arguing this for a while now too but nobody even listens to me. I searched on google for "luck does not exist" to see if anyone shares my idea. Thank you very much. I will prove it someday...

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Blogger Tagliaferri said...

Thanks for the comment, The thing is, I think some people just use the word "luck" when they mean I hope the probablility will be in your favour. The word is just ingrained in our speech.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its not probablility,its oppotunity and will power. You determine your own future but they will always be things in your way.

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Blogger Tagliaferri said...

To anonymous, I don't think you can relate will power to the roll of a die, or if you get struck by lightning or not. You could be the most willed person in the world, you are not going to stop the lightning with your will.

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Anonymous Annoula said...

This is an interesting subject - I am covering it for my dissertation. But I have some discrepancies here.

Can you honestly say that we are in control of everything we do and cause? Because to deny the existence of luck means that, ultimately, everything we cause from our actions was within our control and is thus attributable to us.

For example: A1 shoots at B1; he hits him in the heart and kills B1. A2 shoots at B2; his gun is slightly off or a piece of dust goes in his eye as he shoots, so he misses and B2 lives. If you believe that luck does not exist, you are suggesting that both A1 and A2 were in control of the results; yet both intended to kill their victims. How would this be described by someone who does not believe in luck? The way the results occurred were due to factors outside of their control - which is where I think luck has the chance to intervene. On the other hand, where pure skill is involved, luck cannot intervene because everything is within the actor's control.

I do not see how probability can say that 60% of people shot at actually die, this is non-quantifiable. Probability suggests that there is research and figures based on experiences; it is scientific evidence. But for every action there does not and cannot exist a survey of evidence which provides us with every probability statistic of an action. How would you reply to this?

I want to make it clear that I am not trying to dispel your idea; it is a belief and cannot be proven wrong or right. I am just interested to know what your take would be on the shooting scenario, so that I may get an idea for my dissertation!

sagapo_ellas@hotmail.com

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Blogger Steve Kells said...

Personal Experience: Growing up my mother always told me luck doesn’t exist. Anytime there was something good happening in our lives she always said “it’s the Lords work.”

Now I’m not trying to piss on you and tell it’s raining for all you people who believe in luck……but think about it. What scientific evidence do we have to support this “luck” theory?

.....None

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good luck, in my view, is the convergence of events to create an unusually favorable situation. Whereas bad luck is the reverse.

For example, getting a flat tire is under most circumstances merely an annoyance. However getting a flat tire while you are on your way to an important appointment is the convergence of two events to create an unusually unfavorable situation.

Most people would describe this as bad luck.

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Anonymous jaysontan said...

in statistics, there`s a equation that prof luck does not exist.
but if the equation plus the perspective of the observer.
luck does exist.

-check me if Iam wrong.
jaysoner_jh@yahoo.com

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Only the lucky think luck doesn't exist. And all y'all commenting are lucky believe or not. Half the world still doesn't have access to clean drinking water, let alone silly entitled blogs that think they earned the privilege of being born in a first world country with access to modern medicine and technology. Fuck all your spoiled asses.

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Anonymous Mazuna Smith said...

I say people who believe in luck are people who think the world is supposed to be fair, when it isn't, the world is not fair, but it is not unfair either, the world is neither unfair nor fair, the world is simply as it is. People have this expectation of how things should be and if things don't go to their expectation they call it luck. I always equate luck to God in any argument over this matter, I know people who will swear and argue that god doesn't exist but will claim that you got lucky, people seem to see luck like God, some greater power changing things from fair to alter the chance in a certain situation.

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Blogger clay said...

it in your favor, sometimes against. We can improve the chances of good fortune as well, but that is another topic..If I go to the store and get some milk and look in my wallet to find I have no cash well that would not be "bad luck" per se. It would just be a mistake on my part. However, if I looked on the floor beside the milk and found a $5 bill and used that to pay for the mikl with then that would be good old good luck..If it is not luck then what would a scientist call it? If it was not good luck then what would a pseudo-scientist call it? I can be convinced that free will doesnt exist but "luck" in its simplest form exists and I could never figure out how anyone could disagree.."Oh I make my own luck", he/she says..WTF? You made your own luck and found a $5 bill just at the right moment? NOT..And yes I am an atheist and yes I believe the world is unfair..But luck's existence is quite obvious to me.

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Blogger clay said...

Believers always need a spiritual cause for things that happen. Probability in a random world has some chance for edging our outcome: sometimes this is luck. When probability looks to be on our side we call it good luck when not we call it bad luck. Luck is just favorable " laws of probability'- sometimes it in your favor, sometimes against. We can improve the chances of good fortune as well, but that is another topic..If I go to the store and get some milk and look in my wallet to find I have no cash well that would not be "bad luck" per se. It would just be a mistake on my part. However, if I looked on the floor beside the milk and found a $5 bill and used that to pay for the mikl with then that would be good old good luck..If it is not luck then what would a scientist call it? If it was not good luck then what would a pseudo-scientist call it? I can be convinced that free will doesnt exist but "luck" in its simplest form exists and I could never figure out how anyone could disagree.."Oh I make my own luck", he/she says..WTF? You made your own luck and found a $5 bill just at the right moment? NOT..Yes I am an atheist and yes I believe the world us unfair..But luck exists as far as I can tell.

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